Las rutas hacia un mundo en evolución constante
Palabras clave:
rutas hacia un mundo , evolución constanteSinopsis
El estudio del crecimiento poblacional es fundamental en demografía, ecología y otras disciplinas. Este fenómeno se refiere al cambio en el número de individuos en una población durante un período determinado, y puede ser influenciado por diversos factores como la natalidad, mortalidad, inmigración y emigración (Sposob, 2024).
El modelo de Malthus, (Thomas Robert Malthus 1766-1834), describe el crecimiento poblacional como un proceso exponencial. Según este modelo, la población crece a una tasa constante, lo que significa que la población se duplica en intervalos de tiempo regulares si no hay limitaciones externas (He et al., 2021a), sostiene que la población tiende a crecer más allá de los medios de subsistencia, y que su exceso sería eventualmente disminuido por el hambre, las epidemias y las guerras.
La población crece de manera exponencial cuando los recursos son ilimitados. La fórmula básica es (P(t) = P_0 e^{rt}), donde (P(t)) es la población en el tiempo (t), (P-_0) es la población inicial, ( r ) es la tasa de crecimiento y ( e ) es la base del logaritmo natural (He et al., 2021b).
Las Limitaciones del modelo, es que no considera la capacidad de carga del medio ambiente ni la disponibilidad de recursos, lo que puede llevar a predicciones poco realistas a largo plazo (Tomiyama et al., 2020). El modelo logístico, introducido por Pierre François Verhulst, ajusta el modelo de Malthus al incluir la capacidad de carga del medio ambiente, que es el número máximo de individuos que un entorno puede sostener (Taira, 2021c). La fórmula del modelo logístico es (P(t) = \frac{K}{1 + \left(\frac{K - P_0}{P_0}\right)e^{-rt}} ), donde ( K ) es la capacidad de carga. Este modelo muestra que la tasa de crecimiento disminuye a medida que la población se acerca a la capacidad de carga (Taira, 2021b), siendo la capacidad de carga el límite máximo de población que un entorno puede sostener sin degradarse. Este modelo es más realista ya que considera la limitación de recursos (Taira, 2021c).
Ambos modelos se utilizan para predecir el crecimiento poblacional. El modelo de Malthus es útil para entender el crecimiento inicial, mientras que el modelo logístico es más adecuado para predicciones a largo plazo donde los recursos son limitados (Oluwaseun et al., comunicación personal, 2022). Estos modelos se aplican en diversas áreas como la ecología, la economía y la planificación urbana para prever el crecimiento poblacional y planificar el uso de recursos (Bhadula, 2021).
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